Today on the Marketbeat: Tripple Witching Redemption

Closing #'s

DOW: +400 to 11,010

S&P: +45 to 1,205

NASDAQ: +100(4.8%) to 2,193

RUS2K: +42.92 to 719

TSX/S&P: +321 to 12,199

VIX: -2.67 to 33.55

Internals @ Close:

- NYSE - 

BREATH: 7.5/1 +

A/D: +1500 ticks

TRIN: 0.42

- NASDAQ -

BREATH: 8.5/1 + 

A/D: +1400 ticks

TRIN: 0.37

CORE SECTOR LIST: 16/0 to the Bulls

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ES 2day 15min CHART (Click 2 Enlarge)

After 3 days of being pummeled with bad news, bail outs and price action coupled with volatility through the roof; one could of assumed that with such an oversold market, it was only a matter of WHEN would we retrace some of the immense losses the market took this week. Thankfully for any longs left out there it came earlier than later. But with 3x Witching this week one can wonder if this bear market rally will sustain its gains. It has been noted that a rally in the midst of a very bearish market comes fast and vicious, and with the rally only starting today at 1:15 pm today, you can't get much more vicious and/or fast...I mean this rally came in a blink of an eye, which leaves me to ponder this question...Will this rally fold its gains faster than Superman on laundry day? All jokes aside, technically this bounce looked nice, with internals and the core sector list giving it some backing. The market looked dim in the early hours making even lower lows on all the exchanges, (1136.25 on the ES, 10468 on the YM). However, once it cracked the lows and pivots it quickly changed directions and headed up for the remainder of the trading day, using the pivot points as stepping stools.

Under the hood, things looked as good as they could after the woodshed bear thrashing the markets took in the first 3 trading days. The core sector list gave it all it could coming in at 16/0 for the Bulls. The Breaths came in at a solid 7.5/1(NYSE) and 8.5/1(NASDAQ) respectively, while the TRINS closed the day @ 0.42(NYSE) & 0.37(NASDAQ). Rounding the numbers was the A/D lines coming in at +1500(NYSE) & 1400(NASDAQ) ticks 

Food 4 Thought to Use With Stocks:

- Using the $TICK to your full benefit - 

(Click 2 Enlarge)

Over the years I've come to use and dismiss many indicators and tools. In the beginning of this year I came across a tool called the $TICK. Since I found this it has become one of my market "under the hood" internals. What it does is give you a ratio of the Up/Down issues on the NYSE. Basically its a sentiment indicator. However with no guidelines to go with it, you might just find yourself scratching your head in confusion. An easy guideline to use with it is to only watch for readings above +/- 600, anything under or over that is just NOISE. I draw lines on my tick chart at the +/- 600, 800, 1000....these are the points you need to watch because when the tick enters into those zones its telling you where the market is moving. For example if you happen to see a quick move to +/-1000, it can give you a heads up to take some profits or adjust stops. 

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Important Disclaimer! This website is for entertainment purposes only. Equities, Futures, Options, and Currency Trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Absolutely do not trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell equities, futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Absolutely consult your Registered Financial Adviser and your Risk Trading Plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument!

Today on the Marketbeat: S&P down 8% in 3 days...Dow down 7% this month...what problems?

Market #'s @ Close

DOW: -449.36 to 10,609.66

NASDAQ: -93.38 to 2,114.52

S&P: -48.38 to 1,165.22

RUS2K: -28.94 to 681.71

VIX: up 5.73 

Internals:

NYSE

BREATH: 15/1

A/D: -2775ticks

TRIN: .28

NASDAQ

BREATH: 6/1

A/D: -2000ticks

TRIN: 1.1

Core Sector List: 15/1, only Gold up today

S&P down 8% in 3 days...Dow down 7% this month...what problems?

ES Chart (Click to enlarge):

With the Dow Jones down approx 800Pt's this week, down 7% this month thus far, NASDAQ down 5%, S&P hits new lows, down 8% in the first 3 trading days this week. The powers that be halted Naked short selling as of Midnight tonight. AIG received an unprecedented 85 BILLION dollar bailout all of which failed to stop the markets slide into the abyss. After market action like the first 3 days this week has provided, if your not on the ledge then your defiantly puzzled. 

On the internals it was almost a twin session of yesterdays action. The Core Sector list finished the day @ 15/1 for the bears. The NYSE and NASDAQ breath were 15/1 and 6/1 respectively. And while the Trin has been off a bit this week, the Trin/Q came in around 1.1. Both NYSE and NASDAQ A/D Lines were way bearish giving up +2000 ticks respectively. 

Food 4 Thought to Use with Stocks:

Example of Chart with PercentR & Acceleration Bands (Click to enlarge):

This weeks action has left the market in a uber oversold area. To call this a bottom is like catching falling knives...and I tend to like my hands so I'm not gonna call it, but what I will plant in your minds is the possibility of a vicious buying rally in the near future, after all just like a bullish market has its bear drops, a bear market will have its bullish rally days. How long this rally will/could last is pure speculation although a good way to stay on top of your toes is maybe to add a PercentR (30, 80, 20) and Acceleration Bands (20), which can give u a solid idea of sentiment. 

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Important Disclaimer! This website is for entertainment purposes only. Equities, Futures, Options, and Currency Trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Absolutely do not trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell equities, futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Absolutely consult your Registered Financial Adviser and your Risk Trading Plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument!

Today on the Marketbeat - FOMC: The 400lb Gorilla says nothing...

Today on the Marketbeat - FOMC: The Monster truck hits Wallstreet 

Closing #'s

DOW: +141 to 11,059

S&P: +17 to 1,210

NASDAQ: +19 to 2,199

RUS2K: +16 to 706

TSX/S&P: -79 to 12,174

VIX: -1.17 to 30.53

Internals:

Core Sector List: 13/3

NYSE

BREATH: 2:1

TRIN: .63

NASDAQ

BREATH: 2:1

TRIN: .68

Today the theme on Wallstreet was: What would Bernake Do? and the answer was an emphatic nillage (nothing in old terms). The Fed decided to leave the rates unchanged, letting problems sort themselves out on their own for now. With the usual inital madness post news, the market sorted itself out and found a direction, which was surprisingly bullish for the remainder of the da, with the DOW finishing up 141 pts, with a 360 pt swing from the lows (S&P up 17pts, with a near 50pt swing off the lows)

The vix made an interesting topping tail today moving off the highs today in a solid looking fashion. The Breaths found a direction post fed words and it was bullish, and the core sector list finished 13/3 to the bulls with Drugs, Utilities & software on the downside. Considering the news of late, with major banks fallings out of the sky like Geese in hunting season, its a good sight to see the marketing finding a short term bottom and finding some buyers amidst the madness. Are we out of the woods yet? I wouldnt bet on it, calling bottoms is a dangerous busniness. But with all the bad news coming out now one could imagine that we could start seeing some light, after all they say when everyone stands together saying the sky is falling, its usually a sign that the light is on its way. 

Unusual Options: 

KFT / ACF / AMGN / RY / DBA

Food 4 Thought to Use with Stocks:

Pivot Points/Futures Site - http://www.mypivots.com/

Trade Setups : Today Id like to discuss the importance of having pre-made trade setups. Most people have an idea of their entry and exit points before they enter the trade. But one thing that could help the use of those entry/exit points is having a pre-made setup to go alongside your trade strategies. For example, lets say you wanna go long some 6 contracts of the ES futures at 1200, and you have one exit point, but beleive it could go higher, Well you set up an order template that has a stop 2pts under your entry, and 2 targets, one at your target of 1208, and then a second at 1212, with the first target selling 4 contracts and the second selling the last 2 - while the stop will correct itself accordingly. This can be a useful way to eliminate emotions from trading as all your exit points are put in when the trade is on. 

When Financials fail - Monday Sept 15th, 2008

Closing #'s:

DOW: -500

S&P: -54.5

NASDAQ: -65

RUS2K: -27

TSX/S&P: -438

VIX: +6.04

Internals:

Core Sector List: 15/1

NYSE TRIN: .09

NYSE AD: 2600

NYSE BREATH: 9/1

NASDAQ TRIN: 2.8

NASDAQ AD: 2000

NASDAQ BREATH: 20/1

ES E-Mini S&P Chart (click to enlarge):

Today on the Marketbeat:

An Epic time in history - When Financials Fail

Today was another day that will be remembered in the financial markets. Not only did it mark the end of yet another financial entity, it was the biggest one day drop on the exchanges in years. The Dow closed the day down 500Pt's, and the S&P down 50Pt's. These are huge losses on the exchanges. Could this be the "get worse before it gets better" or is it just getting worse?

 If remembered for nothing else in 2008, I believe that this year will be known for some of the biggest, strongest financial institutions, bowing out of this financial ballet. The first to leave us was the powerhouse Bear Sterns, bowing out earlier in the year while the housing/mortgage crisis was just setting a blaze. Many of us saw this coming and thought maybe the worst could be behind us as we moved into summer moving higher in the exchanges. However this was far from the case as we soon learned when other names started hitting the fan. First it was staples like Freedie Mac and Fannie Mae, and now Lehman Brothers files for Chapter 11. The truth may have taken some time to settle in our minds, but now we can firmly see that the problems facing the economy are widespread and far from over.

 Today was another wild rollercoaster, hold on to your hat day. After the market clawed its way up last week, it only took a couple sentences involving the words Chapter 11, and large financial entity to bring the market to its proverbial knees. We opened the day on the S&P around last Thursdays lows (approx 1211 on the /ES Minis), quickly using prior support as a solid ground to attempt to fill the gap, but once price action met up against the 200 Day Ma it quickly made its way back down towards S3 (1221) and chopped in and around S2 and S3 until the 2pm reversal period when it cracked the lows.

Internals were about as one sided as a fight between a gorilla and a cricket. On the heels of the largest drop on the S&P since '02, the internals essentially mirrored this, as there wasn't much confusion under the hood. The core sector list was a sea of red, following all the major indices being down +3%, closing 15/1 to the bears.  

Food 4 Thought to Use with Stocks:

Today's wild seas of red has been a steady occurrence this year in the markets. However, a drop of +3% on the major indices alongside the horrendous news coming from the financials, as more and more are filling for Chapter 11, this day becomes more than just another big drop, it becomes a sign of what is next to come. I'm not a psychic, and i will not claim to have the slightest idea of where we will be tomorrow or next month. The market is showing its hand and all we can do is digest the information and do our homework. Today these is a spot lite on the current market activity. Go to www.thinkorswim.com to sign up it begins at 5pm est. I will try to have the link for the achieved video.