Today on the Marketbeat: The Vix is King!!

Market #'s @ Close:

DOW:-675 to 8625

S&P: -73 to 911.5 

NASDAQ: -101 to 1,638

RUS2K: -44 to 502

VIX: +5 to 62.5

TSX/S&P: -592 to 9,463

Internals:

Core Sector List: 16/0 to the Bears, most down 5% 

NYSE-

Breadth: 16/1 Negative

Trin: 1.13

A/D Line: -2700

NASDAQ-

Breadth:14/1

Trin: 2.6

A/D Line: -2100

Today on the Marketbeat: The Vix...Is King

Chart of S&P Futures (ES):

S&P + Dow = Down 6% today

S&P: lowest level since August 03

NASDAQ: Lowest levels since 03

Vix: Highest level ever!

With headlines like this, one could assume that its safe to say that the bears are still defiantly in control. Today was an epic day, not just because the major exchanges are at the lowest levels in 5 years, or that the Dow & S&P were down 6% today....if not for any other reason, today was a historic day because the VIX ($VIX) the volatility indicator reached the highest level ever, closing today just shy of the high of 64.92 pennies below 65. This is huge. To catch the significance of this, understand that it has never crossed 60, and in the last hour of trading it blew through 60 and almost pegged 65. The Fed has thrown everything it could at the market, rate cuts, a 700billion dollar bailout package, a temporary ban on short selling and then a global, inter-meeting interest rate cut - none of which even came close to stopping the bleeding. If anything all those things speed up the free fall the market is seeing, worldwide now. 

Here is a Chart of the Vix this week against the S&P Futures - ES

Notice how the Vix pops at the same time the market falls. 

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Today on the Marketbeat: Tales of a Bi-Polar Market

Closing #'s : 

DOW: -189 to 9,258

S&P: -12 to 984

NASDAQ: -15 to 1,740

RUS2K: -12 to 546

TSX/S&P: +225 to 10,055

VIX: +3.85 to 57.53

Internals:

Core Sector List: 10/4 Negative (Bears)

NYSE

A/D Line: -1700 Ticks

Breadth: 2/1 Negative

Trin: 0.74

NASDAQ

A/D Line: -1300 Ticks

Breadth: 2/1 Negative

Trin: 0.77

Today on the Marketbeat: Tales of a Bi-Polar Market

Chart of Internals (Click to enlarge):

The theme of today's trading was Bull or Bear? as the day started negative, opening lower and then bouncing lower off the Pivot point (See chart fig 1.0 - Pt 1). There's wasn't any buyers out there until 1pm rolled along ans some of the Bulls apparently thought they'd show face...at least for awhile. The bulls broke the trendline (see chart - pt 2) and then the secondary trendline until finally pegging the Pivot point. After this point the market was range bounce between the PP and the Mid Point between PP and S1. That is, until the bears woke up and tore the market back down near the lows of the day. Interestingly enough, a trendline connecting today's low, with each subsequent low of the day shows the ES making higher lows on the day, which is interestign as it pegged the highs almost exactly each time, but the lows got higher. 

Chart Fig 1.0 (Click to enlarge):

Under the hood we say internals that guided us through the inside trading day. Watching indicators like the $TICK and Breadth can help a trader guide his way through this proverbial minefield of trades. Each measure volume input on the market, and are some of the only indicators not based on lagging standards.  A good example of this is watching for extreme tick readings of +/- 1000. In a contained market like today's, those readings can be good indicator's for getting out of a play with profits. Take a look at chart fig 1.1.

 You can see that around 10:40, the Tick almost reaches -1000, but stops short. Again around 2:20 the TICK reaches +1000, For example if your long this is a good spot to sell, and if your flat, this could be a good area to short, as you see on the chart - the price action pegs the pivot point and heads down breaking the uptrend line of the day, putting in a 15pt swing. 

Chart Fig 1.1 (Click to enlarge):

The core sector list came in today 10/4, but was pretty much flat all day going into the last 15 min of madness. The A/D Lines came in @ -1700 (NYSE) and -1300 (NASDAQ). while the trins close at 0.7. 

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Today on the Marketbeat: Another day, another drop, Another cut?

Closing #'s

DOW: -508 to 9,447

S&P: -60 to 996

NASDAQ: -108 to 1,754 

RUS2K: -36 to 558

VIX: +2.04 to 54.19

INTERNALS

Core Sector List: 16/0 - banking, oil down 8%

NYSE

A/D: -2400

Breath: 22/1 Neg

Trin: 3.13

NASDAQ

A/D: -1860

Breath: 30/1 Neg

Trin: 7.02

Today on the Marketbeat: Another day another drop. 

After a volatile trading day Monday, the market was looking to have some strength in the early trading sessions, building off the buying of yesterdays close. However, the market moved up for the first bar in the morning then quickly tests the Pivot point, there wasn't a bevy of price action today as prices stuck to the PP and S1 for most of the day, only breaks S1 in the last 15 minutes of the day. Gold was up on the day as everything else was in the red, as it continues to be a short term traders market. 

Big Ben Bernake spoke today, which seemed to hint at another rate cut (.75 base points), followed by Bush speaking, which brought on a brief spark of buying, which was quickly faded short

Chart of Internals + ES / YM (CLICK TO ENLARGE):

Under the hood, the guiding light to risk management today was the breaths and A/D lines. They followed the market action beautifully as we moved lower. The trin has reclaimed its usefulness (for how long) as it trended higher along wit the markets downward slope. The tick also spent most of the day in negative levels. As the day went on the internals worsened as the S&P crossed under the 1000 mark, breath readings came in at 22/1 & 30/1 respectively on the NYSE and NASDAQ.

Overall idea from today, trade small, and manage risk !!

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Today on the Marketbeat - What goes down, Must go......Up??

Closing #'s:

DOW: -369 to 9,955

S&P: -43 to 1,056

NASDAQ: -78 to 1,869

RUS2K: -23 to 596

TSX/S&P: -669 10,133

VIX: +6.54 to 51.68

Internals:

Core Sector List: 16/0 Bears

NYSE

Breath: 7.6/1 Negative

TRIN: 0.8

A/D Line: -2700

Nasdaq

Breath: 8.5/1 Negative

TRIN: 1.6

A/D Line: -2100

Today on the Marketbeat - What goes down, must come ...Up?

Another day in the financial markets, another moment in history. I've actually seen more history being made in the last couple of months than I did in all of High School. With so much emotion tied into every tick of the market its gotten to a point where when the Dow closes -360 on the day its not entirely bad, but that is only when you look at the intraday action. Today the market gaped down 200 pts on the Dow, and quickly continued its drop down, blowing past S1 on the open, then S2 like it wasn't there....and then even S3 in the afternoon session. And just as everyone is saying the sky is falling, even Cramer. The market turns on a dime and rips up 500 pts like its no bodies business. If your looking for a physical example of market volatility, then look no further...this type of swing catches both sides with their tails between their legs. Interestingly enough, upon glancing at a 20yr chart of the $SPX index, with the use of some simple trend lines, you can see how today's action pegs the trend line of the lows from 02-03, so on a technical basis this was a justified move (the late day rally).

Chart of Internals: (Click to enlarge)

Internally it was much of the same as the levels reflected the action. The Breaths were at 27/1 at some points today but with the help of the rally climbed back up to a slightly respectable 8 to 1 ratio for the bears. the A/D lines came in at -2700 ticks and -2100 ticks for the NYSE & NASDAQ respectively. And the trin continued its place as the indicator that just isn't the same as it more reflects the market now instead of contrarian 

Chart of 20yr $SPX (Click to enlarge):

Today I want to take a look at that long term, 20yr chart of the S&P 500. Showing this retracement in a long term perspective. Alot of the time we short term traders tend to forget to take a step back and look at the Big Picture. This is what keeps my head on straight. Looking at this chart we can see how today's wild action pegged the trend line coming from the lows of 02-03. Could this of been one of the catalysts that made the market rip up near the end of the day? who knows. 

Unusual Options: 

SWY / ODP / XLV / PII / CA / GSK / CSC / GIS

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