Thursday, November 20, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: NEW 10 Year Lows on the S&P & DOW



Market #'s @ Closing Bell:

DOW: -444
S&P: -54
NASDAQ: -69
RUS2K: -22
TSX/S&P: -683
VIX: +6.52 to 80


Internals:

Core Sector List: 16/0 tot he Bears

NYSE
Breadth: 15/1 Neg
AD LINE: -2600

NASDAQ
Breadth: 12/1 Neg
AD LINE: -2100

Today on the Marketbeat: New more lows on the Spooze

The biggest piece of news is clearly today's test, and breakdown of the 02-03 lows on the S&P (DOW), this is a very key piece of information as when the market sold off today, it acted as those levels weren't even there. 

Last post I discussed the use of the trin when it closes above 2, or below 0.2 on the day. When you get a reading at either extreme the idea is that the next day the market could see a reversal of set extreme reading. Yesterday we got a reading of 3, well over a close above 2 so I mentioned that the market could see a quick rally on the day. Now what I wanna focus on today is the half day rally we saw before the sellers reloaded and shorted the market to new lows on the DOW and S&P yet again. We opened down today then quickly snapped back rallying into the daily pivot line, almost pegging it, then reversing gears to the downside in the afternoon. from the initial lows, there were defiantly some good opportunities to catch some intra day swings, but with the rally being squashed in the afternoon into another sell off, do these rules of thumb still work? The quick answer is that in a market like this, whatever strategy you use, you have to keep in mind that it can switch gears on a dime and rip either way, so you have to trade small and be quick to take profits. 

Under the hood the internals were once again the superheros for active traders. Giving us the slightest of warnings on sentiment swings and helping us decipher when to take profits if we rode that rally. The trin posted a +1125 reading at 12:45, simultaneously with the price action making its second consecutive topping tail before it dropped. The Breadth showed some bullish intent early on but at 12:45 it also turned around pointing to a bearish afternoon. Finally the AD LINES tacked on some more losses with the NYSE closing down 2600 ticks and the NASDAQ down 2100 ticks. 

Overall this has been another week to the bears. The 03 lows have been tested and seemingly broken. So what does this spell for the market? only time will tell, till Sunday - Plan your trades, and trade your plans...


Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: The lowest close of this year (not lowest low)



Market #'s @ Close:

DOW: -427
S&P: -52
NASDAQ: -96
RUS2K:
TSX/S&P:
VIX: +6.83 to 74.48

Internals: 

Core Sector List: 16/0

NYSE
AD Line: -2798
Breadth: 50/1 Neg

NASDAQ
AD Line: -2200
Breadth: 38/1 Neg

Another day another drop, making new lows for the week and month. The Vix shot back up 74 today as volatility continues to be a huge factor. The NASDAQ 100 is a terrific example of how the bearish sentiment is still strong, as 99 on the stocks trading in the NASDAQ 100 were trading lower today, with the one exception being up 6 cents. On a technical note, the ES futures closed pegging the lows today, right under the S2 Pivot. and volume was increasing as the day got progressively bearish. On the YM (Dow Futures) they lost 8000 near the bell, closing @ 7992.



Under the hood wasn't much prettier if you like Bullish action, as the internals were testifying for the Bears today. First up on the stand was the Breadth; and this was the key witness in today's case as it put in a 50/1 reading to the bears on the NYSE and 38/1 to the bears on the NASDAQ; in terms of breadth readings it doesn't get much more nasty than that. The AD Line tacked on some huge losses, -2800 on the NYSE and -2200 on the NASDAQ. While the trin is finally acting right making higher highs throughout the day closing above 3 for the first time in awhile, giving note to a possible bear rally tomorrow (Close above 2 on the TRIN = 80% chance of rally next day). 

We will have to see what the market has in store, until then, plan your trades, and trade your plans....


Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Another inside day



Market #'s @ Close:

DOW: +86
S&P: +8
NASDAQ: +1
RUS2K: -4
TSX/S&P: +38
VIX: -0.73

Internals:

Core Sector List: 9/7 to the Bears

NYSE
AD LINE: -890 (Down over 2000 ticks at low of day)
BREADTH: 1.5/1 neg

NASDAQ
AD LINE: -580 (Down over 1600 ticks at low of day)
BREADTH: 2/1 Neg


Today on the Marketbeat: Another inside day

Market/Price action was again king today as the major indices enjoyed another inside the pivots day. The day got off to a decent start, flirting around the days pivot point (860 on the ES futures). It stayed within this range until the early afternoon hours when the sellers took control and put the indexes down to their S2 (support 2 pivots). At this point the market turned on a dime and rallied hard into the close finishing above today's pivot on the YM and slightly below it on the ES, closing the day with a small gain. 

Chart of Internals (Click to enlarge)
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Under the hood, once again the internals told the story behind the price action with the Breadth and AD LINE, combined with the $TICK continue to be a active traders best friend.  The breadth was bearish for most of the day, but in the last hour of the day when the markets rallied the Breadth took a sharp turn up going from 8/1 negative to close around 1.5/1 on the NYSE. The AD Line lost some ticks closing around 900 ticks, but comparing the lows of the day having a -2000 tick reading at the lows that isn't so bad. The Tick spent most of the day in the negative side, but moves up sharply as the market rallied. What interesting about the TICK is that it closed a big body candle at -1306, at 2:45, when you look at the ES chart that's the exact candle where the rally capped off, showing once again that when the Tick closes below or above 1000/-1000 it gives a good shot that a reversal is on its way. 

Chart of Tick vs ES (Click to enlarge)
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Monday, November 17, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Just another manic Monday....

Market #'s @ Close:

DOW: -223
S&P: -22
NASDAQ: -30
RUS2K:
TSX/S&P:
VIX: +2.79

Internals:

Core Sector List: 15/1, utilities only sector up.

NYSE
BREADTH: 5/1 Neg
AD LINE: -1600

NASDAQ
BREADTH: 4/1 Neg
AD LINE: -1000


Today on the Marketbeat: Just another Manic Monday...

Today the market continued the downward slump that we ended the week with last week. We picked up where we ended, and ended where we picked off as once again the market sold off hard into today's close giving up any modest loss it had up till 3:45pm. Although the overall sentiment today was bearish, it didn't stop the bulls from trying to push up, only to be squashed by the Pivot line resistance. The market managed to hold the lows as the bears put in a final attack holding and closing at the lows. 

Under the hood, the internals continue to be the savour for swing/day traders as they continue to be the next to best indicator, second to price action. The AD Line held up until 1pm when it began to drop off steadily, closing the day at minus 1500 ticks on the NYSE (-1000 on the NASDAQ). The Breadth came in at 5/1 negative on the NYSE and 4/1 negative on the NASDAQ, while the Trin closed the say at its highs around 1.5.