Thursday, December 4, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Bernake's beard grows grey & Late day tom foolery

Market #'s @ Closing Bell:

S&P: -31
DOW: -215
NASDAQ: -53
RUS2K: -16
TSX/S&P: -237
VIX: +4.02


Market Internals:

Core Sector List: 14/2 to the Bears

NYSE
BREADTH: 3.3/1 Neg
AD LINE: -1500 Ticks

NASDAQ

BREADTH: 1.35/1 Neg
AD LINE: -1000 ticks

Today on the Marketbeat: Bernake's beard grows grey & Late day tom foolery

Today I awoke to Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaking about what else, more credit issues. Ill be honest, as half asleep as I was, his beard was looking a couple shades of grey darker today. Anyways, the market paid attention to his words most of the early session as it chopped around between the Pivot point and R1. However, the calm was disrupted by the ever famous late day big movement, in today's case, it was a big bodied red candle to the downside. This swing down @ approx 3:00 (key reversal period). The market took a 20 ES point beating to the downside only to hold S1 for some solid support, bouncing up but closing the day around the lows.

Under the hood internals gave us the best heads up on the big wash out. prior to 3pm the Breadth started to peak up towards the negative side and @ 3 jumped to new lows. The AD LINE went straight red starting around 3pm and what I found weird the TICK gave no warning to this violent downward swing. 

Besides the late day theatrics, we are seeing some of the first signs of bullish sentiment in months. Just looking at the charts you might not see this, but there are ways to see the "behind the scenes" action in the Market. The first tool to use is an indicator called the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator). When taking a glance at a S&P chart with the RSI on it (Daily), you will notice in the last 3 months as we have moved downward, the RSI has been gaining relative strength(SEE CHARTS). Another way to see the bullishness growing is on the VIX, now once again looking at the chart face value doesn't help us, because were still in no mans land at highs. But when you draw some trend lines you can see that the vix spent some time earlier this year expanding, now it seems to be collapsing forming a Diamond Top, (Investopedia Definition)


Chart 1: SPY (Relative Strength) - Click to enlarge
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Chart 2: Vix Diamond Top -Click to enlarge
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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Higher highs & Higher lows, What the deuce?



Market Numbers @ Closing Bell:

S&P: +22
DOW: +172
NASDAQ: +42
RUS2K: +12
TSX/S&P: -31
VIx: -1.96


INTERNALS:

CORE SECTOR LIST: 13/3 to the Bulls

NYSE
BREADTH: 3.2/1 Pos
AD LINE: 1000 ticks

NASDAQ
BREADTH: 4.2/1 Pos
AD LINE: 750 ticks

Today on the Marketbeat: Higher Highs & Higher Lows ...What the deuce?

Do my eyes deceive me or is the market holding up ? Now lets not get talking bottoms here, but stick to what is presently shaping form. First off after the big profit taking, post turkey day wash out, we held a solid support line and bounced nicely yesterday. Today we gaped a lil under the daily pivot, which quickly filled and ripped up to the R1 pivot (As seen on graph 1). The first Resistance point was met with some profit taking and a bit of a chop fest. In the early afternoon session the big boys down at the exchanges cued up the ever famous head fake down tot he days pivot point and rallied into new intra day highs, just about R2, closing near those highs.

Graph 1: Market Internals (Click to enlarge)
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Under the hood was a bevy of internal action. The breadth was bouncing back and forth all day until the bulls seized control in the late afternoon as we rallied to new intra day highs, closing the day at 3.2 & 4.2 to 1 on the NYSE & NASDAQ respectively. The AD LINE bounced around from positive tick readings to negative but closed the day strong at its highs around +950 ticks. And rounding out the internals the core sector list closed the day with 13 of 16 core sectors in the green. 

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Bears? What Bears?



Market #'s @ Market Closing Bell:

S&P: +33.4
DOW: +270
NASDAQ: +49
RUS2K: +23
TSX/S&P: -92
VIX: -5.04

Internals:

Core Sector List: 15/1 to the Bulls - builders, banks, drugs leading

NYSE
BREADTH: 8/1 to the bulls
AD LINE: +1600 ticks 

NASDAQ
BREADTH: 5.8/1 to the bulls
AD LINE: +1200


Today on the Marketbeat: Bears what Bears?

Another day another dollar, another rally. The Market held off the bears once again as the major exchanges bounce off support levels for the time being. 820 seemed to be the action point as after we briefly crossed it, the market rallied hard into the afternoon where the usual fake out took place as the players over there on the NYSE shook out some longs and then some shorts into the end of the day as we rallied into the close at new day highs

ES Futures (S&P500) Chart (Click to enlarge)
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Under the hood we saw the internals pave the way for short term traders. The Core Sector list finished in at 15/1 tot he bulls, as the AD LINES tacked on +1600 & +1200 on the NYSE & NASDAQ respectively. The Breadth finished a solid day at 8/1 on the NYSE and 6/1 on the NASDAQ. And the TICK spent the majority of the day above the 0 mark. Over all the day was primarily bullish aside from some fake out plays in the early afternoon which have become almost the norm in this market. 

So as it looks now, the short term lows of last week held a bit, and we bounced off them with a bit of conviction. What to watch for now: watch to see if the ES can hit & hold 850, and from then 874. These are technical markers that if we test and break could lead to more bullishness, on the flip side if we don't hit or hold those levels they are solid action points to the downside.

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Finance Ready ?

Ive made a lil compilation of a couple larger name Finance stocks to see how they are holding up. 
Also a compilation of bailout names like Fannie and Freddie to see what they've been up to


Here is Freddie and Fannie Mae


Remember you can click on the chart thumbnails to enlarge the chart to get more details.

My regular recap post will be posted as usual around 5pm. 



Monday, December 1, 2008

Today on the Marketbeat: Post Turkey Tumble



Market #'s @ Closing Bell:

S&P: -80 (-9%)
DOW: -670
NASDAQ: -113
RUS2K: -47
TSX/S&P: -829
VIX: +12

INTERNALS:

CORE SECTOR LIST: 16/0 to the Bears

NYSE
AD LINE: -2470
BREADTH: 75/1

NASDAQ
AD LINE: -2000
BREADTH: 38/1

Today on the Marketbeat: Post Turkey Tumble

Well with a week last last week, full or turkey, stuffing and a 5 day market rally, one could have had an idea that some profits would be taken off the plate. Todays early drop on the open took the market down a fair chunk, down 20 ES points (-2 pts on the SPY), as we continued that slide down for the most part of the day [Nearly 500 YM points]. Internals were not much prettier as the core sector list was looking similar to Santas suit after a holiday feast, all red. Breadth, AD lines and TICK were also all in the red today as any sign of last weeks bulls has faded. As much as this downward wash out could have been somewhat expected as the crisis were facing in todays market is far from over, the market still managed to hold last weeks lows around 84 on the SPY [830 on the ES]. A hold on the close sugests that we could have a decent level of support to work with, but with all things financial, only time can tell.
 
Market Internals (Click to enlarge)
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Under the hood as discussed earlier was a sea of red today as the core sector list closed in completely to the Bears 16-0. The AD LINE tacked on about 2500 ticks of loss, and the TICK spent 85% of its day under 0 showing a definate bias to the bears. The trin acted nice today moving higher and making higher highs.  

At the close we saw the markets give back about 6% on avaerage on the major exchanges. Many of the important sectors also gave away a decent chunk, but the important thing is to see if the market wants to hold the lows put in last week. If we can hold these lows and make a bounce we could bear witness to a rally that could take us into the end of the year, however if the lows hold we could see a slide back down to lows. As always time will tell.